Oscar Predictions

  I haven't done Oscar picks in a while (can't remember how long it's been, actually), but I have more free time right now--finishing grad school has that effect--so here goes. If for some reason you care, I'm listening to Macklemore & Ryan Lewis while I write this.

What I think will win is in Red.
What I think should win is in Blue.
If will and should are the same, it will be in Purple.
And because this is my list, the "should win" can be a write-in.

Best Picture:
"Beasts of the Southern Wild"
"Silver Linings Playbook"
"Zero Dark Thirty"
"Lincoln"
"Les Miserables"
"Life of Pi"
"Amour"
"Django Unchained"
"Argo" 
 Write-in: Moonrise Kingdom

I've seen every nominee except Amour, and I have issues with all of them. In fact, there are several additional movies besides MK--The Master, Looper, maybe even Cabin in the Woods--that I liked more than any of the nominees. My favorite of the nominees is Life of Pi, because it tried more things (there were a lot of safe movies this year), and was the most visually impressive.


Best Supporting Actor:
Christoph Waltz, "Django Unchained"
Philip Seymour Hoffman, "The Master"
Robert De Niro, "Silver Linings Playbook"
Alan Arkin, "Argo"
Tommy Lee Jones, "Lincoln"

 My preference is close between Waltz and Hoffman, because they're both great in roles that are familiar territory for them. I think the Academy is happy De Niro was good in something again.

Best Supporting Actress:
Sally Field, "Lincoln"
Anne Hathaway, "Les Miserables"

Jacki Weaver, "Silver Linings Playbook"
Helen Hunt, "The Sessions"
Amy Adams, "The Master" 

Hathaway is very good in Les Mis (I didn't like her "I Dreamed a Dream" the first time I heard it, but have come around since), but she's not in the movie all that much, and her character doesn't require a lot of range emotionally. Adams had a more challenging role in The Master--one I didn't think she would be able to pull off--but she impressed me in a big way.

Best Director: 
David O. Russell, "Silver Linings Playbook"
Ang Lee, "Life of Pi"
Steven Spielberg, "Lincoln"
Michael Haneke, "Amour"
Benh Zeitlin, "Beasts of the Southern Wild"
Write-in: Paul Thomas Anderson, "The Master"

Spielberg didn't do anything really new or difficult in Lincoln, which is why I think he will (but shouldn't) win. Anderson maintains a tightrope in The Master; it could have gone off the rails many times, but didn't (at least for me).

Best Actor:
Daniel Day-Lewis, "Lincoln"
Denzel Washington, "Flight"
Hugh Jackman, "Les Miserables"
Bradley Cooper, "Silver Linings Playbook"
Joaquin Phoenix, "The Master" 

Easiest category to predict. Day-Lewis is excellent as Lincoln, but for all the praise he gets for changing his voice and the way he carries his body, I think Phoenix did the same kinds of things in The Master, but better.

Best Actress:
Naomi Watts, "The Impossible"
Jessica Chastain, "Zero Dark Thirty"
Jennifer Lawrence, "Silver Linings Playbook"
Emmanuelle Riva, "Amour"
Quvenzhané Wallis, "Beasts of the Southern Wild" 

Might be the hardest category to predict. I haven't seen Watts or Riva, but I feel like this is Lawrence's coronation as the new queen of Hollywood. Sure, Wallis is super cute and really young, but she carried Beasts in a way that really impressed me.

Best Original Screenplay:
"Zero Dark Thirty"
"Django Unchained"
"Moonrise Kingdom"
"Amour"
"Flight"
Write-in: "Looper"

 I see this coming down to a showdown between two Oscar outsiders--Tarantino and Wes Anderson--and I'd be okay with either of them winning, honestly. Rian Johnson did some really interesting--and complex--things with the time-travel genre, and also built an emotionally-involving story at the same time.

Best Adapted Screenplay:
"Lincoln"
"Silver Linings Playbook"
"Argo"
"Life of Pi"
"Beasts of the Southern Wild"

Argo has become this year's juggernaut. I'm not a huge Lincoln fan, but the screenplay is quite good when it works (although kind of bad whenever Joseph Gordon-Levitt is on screen).

Best Animated Feature:
"Frankenweenie"
"The Pirates! Band of Misfits"
"Wreck-It Ralph"
"Paranorman"
"Brave"

Brave wins because it's not weird, and Pixar made it. I'm a video game kid, and Ralph gets it's world-building right; it might be the most fun I had at a movie this year.

Best Foreign Feature:
"Amour"
"A Royal Affair"
"Kon-Tiki"
"No"
"War Witch"

I live in a small town, so I have to wait until foreign movies get to DVD before I can see them, which means I haven't seen any of these yet. The foreign movie I'm most looking forward to, however, is Romania's "Beyond the Hills."

Best Visual Effects:
"Life of Pi"
"The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey"
"The Avengers"
"Prometheus"
"Snow White and the Huntsman"

Avengers wins because everyone liked it and it's a special effects movie. As I mentioned before, I think Life of Pi is the best-looking movie of the year, and the effects are a big part of that.

Best Cinematography:
"Skyfall"
"Anna Karenina"
"Django Unchained"
"Life of Pi"
"Lincoln"
Write-in: "The Master"

Possible upset for Skyfall here, but I think Pi will win. The Master has a terrific balance of close-in and wide shots.

Best Costume Design:
"Anna Karenina"
"Les Miserables"
"Lincoln"
"Mirror Mirror"
"Snow White and the Huntsman"

Don't care enough about this category to have an opinion. I've only seen two nominees, too. This is the one place I would've like to see Cloud Atlas nominated, though.

Best Documentary Feature:
"Searching for Sugar Man"
"How to Survive a Plague"
"The Gatekeepers"
"5 Broken Cameras"
"The Invisible War"

 Sugar Man is the only one of the five I've seen, and I think it's great. Might not be "important" enough to win, though. The Gatekeepers is about Israeli military secrets, by the way.

Best Documentary Short:
"Open Heart"
"Inocente"
"Redemption"
"Kings Point"
"Mondays at Racine"

 Haven't ever heard of any of these. When in doubt, go with the most heartwarming-sounding title.

Best Film Editing:
"Lincoln"
"Silver Linings Playbook"
"Life of Pi"
"Argo"
"Zero Dark Thirty" 
 Write-in: The Cabin in the Woods

 ZDT's consolation prize.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling:
"Hitchcock"
"The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey"
"Les Miserables" 

 Don't care, but glad Cloud Atlas didn't get nominated.

Best Music (Original Score):
"Anna Karenina"
"Argo"
"Life of Pi"
"Lincoln"
"Skyfall"
Write-in: "The Master" 

Would have liked to see Moonrise Kingdom in here, but it got disqualified because the Academy's rules don't make any sense. No one knows why The Master wasn't nominated. It might be the best thing in the movie.

Best Music (Original Song):
"Before My Time" from "Chasing Ice"
"Everybody Needs A Best Friend" from "Ted"
"Pi's Lullaby" from "Life of Pi"
"Skyfall" from "Skyfall"
"Suddenly" from "Les Misérables"

Haven't heard half of these. This category is another victim of weird Academy rules, which is why the worst song from Les Mis is the only one that could be nominated. 

Best Production Design:
"Anna Karenina"
"The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey"
"Les Misérables"
"Life of Pi"
"Lincoln"

Haven't seen Anna yet, so I can't say it should win, but the concept for it sounds really interesting. 

Best Short Film, Animated:
"Adam and Dog"
"Fresh Guacamole"
"Head over Heels"
"Maggie Simpson in 'The Longest Daycare'"
"Paperman" 

Paperman wins because people have seen it (it played in front of Wreck-It Ralph). Check out Adam and Dog if you can; it's excellent. 

Best Short Film, Live Action:
"Asad"
"Buzkashi Boys"
"Curfew"
"Death of a Shadow (Dood van een Schaduw)"
"Henry"

Total shot in the dark.

Best Sound Editing:
"Argo"
"Django Unchained"
"Life of Pi"
"Skyfall"
"Zero Dark Thirty"

Best Sound Mixing:
"Argo"
"Les Misérables"
"Life of Pi"
"Lincoln"
"Skyfall"

I've never understood the difference between the two sound categories, and I don't believe anyone who says they do.